The start of spring training is usually the time of year where we start to hear copious reports about [insert any baseball player you want here] being in The Best Shape of His Life heading into camp. Ronald Acuña Jr. may fall into this category after he was spotted hitting batting practice bombs at the start of spring training and exclaiming loudly that “I’M HEALTHY!” afterwards. There’s no other message to take from this post other than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is currently in The Best Shape of His Life.
While the topic of this particular article may not be in the best shape of his life, the Braves would certainly benefit from having him healthy once again and you might even say that it’s crucial that he stays healthy going forward. That man is Austin Riley, who has spent the past two seasons scuffling a bit and seeing his campaign get cut short due to injury. Just when Riley was starting to really get rolling in 2024, he got hit on the wrist with a heater and that was it for his season. A sports hernia essentially derailed anything that Riley had going on in 2025.
Of course, one player is not going to derail any given season. We got a clear example of that up close and personal in 2021 when this team won the World Series without Ronald Acuña Jr. playing any games in the second half or Postseason. With that being said, it’s a stone cold fact that this team absolutely needs to have Austin Riley doing well at the hot corner and the bottom line is that if this team is going to accomplish what it wants to, they need Riley to be healthy and productive.
Fortunately, it feels like Riley is feeling good coming into this season. Braves beat writer Mark Bowman wrote an article on Riley recently and while every single baseball team and player has reason to feel optimistic at this time of year, it sure seems like Atlanta’s star third baseman has very good reason to feel optimistic.
The sports hernia surgery performed this past summer didn’t limit Riley this offseason. So, there’s reason the two-time All-Star is confident he can get back to where he was when he finished top seven in National League MVP balloting three straight seasons (2021-23).
“The sports hernia, I’m not even thinking about it,” Riley said. “The hand, I’m not even thinking about it. So, having a whole offseason getting to do what I’ve done in the past is huge.”
Again, it’s probably not a coincidence that this team (and the lineup in particular) is better when Austin Riley is productive. Riley put up five consecutive 5 fWAR seasons from 2021 through 2023 — the Braves won the World Series in 2021, they won 101 games in 2022 and then won 104 games in 2023. During Riley’s injury plagued 2024 and 2025 campaigns, the team limped into the Wild Card round in 2024 and missed the Postseason entirely in 2025. Again, one man doesn’t make or break a team’s fortunes in the ultimate team sport that is baseball but it’s clear that Riley is going to play a very big part in any level of success that the Braves hope to have going forward.
The good news is that there seems to be some evidence that a healthy Austin Riley should live up to the lofty expectations that are expected of him. MLB.com also recently posted a list of every team’s projected leader in WAR for the upcoming season and while Ronald Acuña Jr. is the obvious favorite to lead the Braves in WAR going forward, there figures to be a furious fight for second place in that category and he leader of that pack might be Austin Riley. FanGraphs Depth Charts is projecting that Acuña will finish with 5.4 WAR as a batter but then Austin Riley is right behind him at a projected 3.6 WAR.
In fact, Riley’s being projected to hit .261/.324/.470 with .340 wOBA. While that’s slightly below his career numbers of .270/.334/.492 with .352 wOBA, it’s also better than the .258/.316/.445 slash line (with .328 wOBA) that he produced over the course of the past two seasons. In fact, his 2024 numbers (.256/.322/.461, .338 wOBA, 116 wRC+) weren’t terrible and were actually trending upwards until he got hit on the wrist.
Even in 2025, he was doing pretty well right up until his abdomen started acting up on him as he had hit .274/.324/.441 with a .330 wOBA and 111 wRC+ over 408 plate appearances. While all of these numbers are still lower than what he was putting up during his peak performance, it’s productive enough to help make sure that this is a tough lineup to deal with with a healthy Austin Riley in it.
Alex Anthopoulos is also on record saying that he believes that the offense as a whole bouncing back may be a more important influence on any of Atlanta’s future success going forward, so obviously that would include a healthy Austin Riley in any formula that leads to the Braves doing well as a lineup going forward. There may be some questions about health and consistency but a lot of this lineup has the track record behind them to believe that a bounce back could absolutely be possible.
Austin Riley is absolutely a prime candidate to bounce back and if he does then the Braves should be in very good shape going forward. Riley might not be the straw that stirs the drink but the Braves absolutely need a healthy and productive Riley to come through for them if they want to perform well as a team going forward. We’ll see what happens but for now, it’s fun to imagine Riley going out there and raking like usual while shattering all types of proverbial glass.