Despite the possibility they could boast the best starting staff in the division by the All-Star break, the Yankees rotation will have a different composition on Opening Day. They will have to lean on their less-heralded arms to weather the early-season absences of Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón as the pair rehab from their respective elbow surgeries. As things stand, their rotation projects as Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren, and Ryan Weathers, rounded out by 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.
2025 Stats: 11 starts, 57 IP, 4-1, 3.32 ERA (123 ERA+), 4.63 FIP, 5.65 xFIP, 16.8% K%, 13.5% BB%, 0.79 HR/9, 1.40 WHIP, 0.6 fWAR
2026 ZiPS Projections: 19 starts, 93.2 IP, 5-6, 4.61 ERA, 4.59 FIP, 23.3% K%, 11.8% BB%, 1.25 HR/9, 1.34 WHIP, 1.0 fWAR
Fresh off his RoY win, the Yankees refused to include Gil in a rumored trade for Kyle Tucker before the latter was dealt to the Cubs. Should Gil take the next step in his development at the major league level, one could have dreamed of him establishing a ceiling as a frontline starter. Instead, a lat strain robbed him of the first four months of the season, and warning flags popped up in bunches once he returned to play.
The surface-level stats looked encouraging — in nine of his last ten starts he allowed two or fewer runs across at least five innings in each outing to finish the year with a 3.32 ERA. However, looking under the hood revealed a host of problems. He placed among the four worst starters with at least 50 innings pitched in walk rate, K-BB%, xFIP, and SIERA after losing almost 1.5 mph off his average fastball velocity, leading to plummeting strikeout and chase rates. He gave up a ton of pulled fly balls accompanied by career worsts in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, both of which underlie alarming jumps in expected slugging and expected FIP.
Not to be too harsh, but all of the lingering hope and hype surrounding Gil boils down to a seven-start stretch from the beginning of May through the first week of June in 2024. Without that five-week span, Gil would not have the AL Rookie of the Year award on his mantel, and his career ERA balloons from 3.50 to 4.15 and FIP from 4.25 to 4.70. Obviously, that is not the way baseball works, but it is still revealing how much weight a relatively short stretch exerts when you have a major league sample size of 242 career innings.
To his credit, Gil remained confident in his abilities when queried about the drop in fastball velocity, asserting that it was an area of maturation to pace himself through a start rather than throw max effort on each hitter (and his fastest pitch at 99 mph proves he can still reach back for velo when he needs it). However, Gil has likely reached his ceiling until he can find consistent command with all three pitches. His 12.7-percent career walk rate is second worst among starters with at least 240 innings pitched since Gil’s debut in 2021. He would suffer starts where he lost the feel for two out of three pitches. Being reduced to throwing just his heater or just his changeup batter after batter caused his strikeout, whiff, and chase rates to crater to career-lows — you just are not going to fool the opposition throwing the same pitch over and over.
All this being said, there are two ways to view Gil’s 2026 season. From the broader team perspective, the Yankees really only need Gil to deputize in rotation until Cole and Rodón are ready to go. Indeed, ZiPS projects him as exactly that type of fringy fifth starter. Though almost all projection systems expect his ERA to increase by about a run, each model predicts his strikeout rate to recover accompanied by a career-low walk rate, perhaps banking that a clean bill of health and a full spring training can put his command in a better spot entering the season.
From the individual focused standpoint, it’s a more worrying outlook for Gil. Once one of the crown jewels of the Yankees’ pitching development, Gil is already finding himself leapfrogged by the prospects graduating below him. His prospects as a long-term starter for the Yankees are dimming in the face of the emergence of Schlittler and Warren and the looming graduations of Elmer Rodríguez and (further down the road) Carlos Lagrange to the majors. Volatility does not project well for a starter, and Gil could be ticketed for a move to the bullpen where at least his high-octane stuff can play up in short spurts.
Thus, Gil finds himself at a crossroads entering the 2026 season. His lack of appreciable development since debuting and the recent trend of disappearing strikeouts severely limit his floor and ceiling as a starter. The urgency is accelerated by the crop of starting pitchers on the cusp of the majors threatening to push Gil out of the future rotation pictures, making the upcoming campaign a make-or-break season for the 27-year-old.
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