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Why restricted free agency could be key for Lakers this offseason

DENVER, COLORADO - JANUARY 20: Luka Doncic #77 of the Los Angeles Lakers controls the ball as Peyton Watson #8 of the Denver Nuggets defends during the fourth quarter at Ball Arena on January 20, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tanner Pearson/Clarkson Creative/Getty Images) | Getty Images

On paper, the Lakers are poised for a huge summer of spending. Through multiple transaction windows, the Lakers have planned for the summer of 2027 as the time when they strike big.

The problem with their plan, and one they currently have entirely predicted, is that the unrestricted free agency class is rather underwhelming. It doesn’t mean the Lakers can’t still build a contender, but it does mean the simplest path to do so won’t likely be one they can take.

What, then, will free agency look like for the Lakers this summer? Let’s dive into that and more with our mailbag this week.

OldSchoolBaller
Who are the best and most likely free agents this coming offseason?

Technically, the two biggest likely unrestricted free agents will be two Lakers in LeBron James and Austin Reaves. After that, the free agency class pretty quickly takes a nose dive.

First, let’s look at the most notable potential unrestricted free agents:

  • Isaiah Hartenstein — Team option
  • Andrew Wiggins — Player option
  • John Collins — Unrestricted
  • Norman Powell — Unrestricted
  • Lu Dort — Team option
  • Quentin Grimes — Unrestricted
  • Ayo Dosunmu — Unrestricted

This isn’t even a particularly exhaustive list or one with much thought on the Lakers’ needs, but more of an example of how few real game-changing free agents there will be.

Excluded from this were Trae Young (player option), James Harden (player option) and Kristaps Porzingis (unrestricted), but for various fairly obvious reasons, I don’t think the Lakers are going to be an option there.

The far more intriguing crop of players are the restricted free agents:

  • Jaden Ivey
  • Bennedict Mathurin
  • Ousmane Dieng
  • Jalen Duren
  • Mark Williams
  • Walker Kessler
  • Peyton Watson

Restricted free agency has taken on an odd form under the new CBA. Last summer, we saw how little interest teams had in signing them, leading to long standoffs between the incumbent team and the player.

The Lakers’ unique position, though, could allow them to sign at least one of these players and still be spenders in free agency elsewhere. It won’t tie up their cap space entirely to send out an offer sheet. And with so much cap room, they could put together some really big offer sheets that will make it tough for teams to match.

It wouldn’t be a surprise, then, to see the Lakers moving aggressively from the start of free agency to sign one of these players and start the clock on the incumbent teams to match the offer once the moratorium ends.


Kilgary
It’s crazy we don’t have a definitive answer for this yet. With just 28 games left in the season: Who should be in our starting lineup? We saw zero success with AR+Luka+LeBron+Rui all starting (no one quick enough to defend the POA) BUT that was with JJ’s “switch everything” defense. What if they started out in zone? JJ has been experimenting with a lot of different zone looks to wallpaper over our slow footed stars. Would we be better off with our best offensive players in the starting lineup and starting out in zone or with some defenders and starting out in our “switch everything” defense?
  • Zone starters: Austin, Luka, Rui, LeBron, Deandre
  • Switch starters: Marcus, Austin, Luka, LeBron, Deandre

While I understand the sentiment, I think there are a couple of reasons to push back.

For one, you’re telegraphing what type of defense you’re going to play based on your starting lineup and if there’s anything coaches hate to do, it’s telegraph things based on starting lineups.

There is also a bit of a misconception about the zone defense the Lakers are using. It’s not something they go to for a long string of possessions in a row because NBA offenses and players are too sophisticated and smart for that to work.

The Lakers will employ their zone defense for a couple of possessions and then go back to the man-to-man. Think of it in baseball as a pitcher having different pitches. If they keep throwing a changeup (zone defense), then eventually the batter is going to see it coming and bad things will happen.

But if he can mix in that changeup with a fastball (man-to-man) and maybe even some other stuff like a curve (blitzing the ballhandler, as they did against the Clippers and Kawhi Leonard), then they may have enough. The zone defense is part of a greater scheme defensively and one they’re going to use with about every lineup they have because they aren’t good enough defensively to just have one look.


Kilgary
Second question: is there anyone left in the buyout market who would be worth waiving Kleber for? I’ll fully acknowledge that Maxi has contributed to winning 4 games this season. But that means he didn’t really contribute (or actively hurt our chances) in his 25 other games. I personally believe the bad outweighs the good and would rather have someone else hold the 15th roster spot. We can afford another vet minimum contract starting on February 26th. I was hoping we’d have a shot at Highsmith, but he’s off the board. Is there anyone else like Matisse Thybulle or even one of our 2-way guys like Timme who is worth taking a chance on over keeping Maxi on the roster as an emergency big?

I think there’s very, very little chance they move on from Maxi Kleber before the end of the season. Barring something drastic, this is the roster for the rest of the season.

Considering the recent games Deandre Ayton has missed with a knee injury lately and Jaxson Hayes’ potential to tackle a mascot at a moment’s notice, I don’t think the Lakers are in a position to cut bait on their third-string center.

I also think there’s value in being a respected veteran teammate on the bench. The team loves Kleber and he’s answered the bell when he’s asked in some big moments. I’m not sure there’d be a great reaction internally or externally to waiving him just before the playoffs, especially with a buyout market void of any real impact players and no two-way guys worth signing to a standard deal for the playoffs.

This isn’t like last season when Jordan Goodwin was securely in the rotation as the season ended. Drew Timme had a moment, as has Nick Smith Jr., but neither guy is worth cutting Kleber for.

You can follow Jacob on Twitter at @JacobRude or on Bluesky at @jacobrude.bsky.social.

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