ADD VIDEO
The NL East was a landmine of disappointments in 2025. The Braves were the most disappointing club in the National League, and the Mets broke their fans’ hearts by collapsing down the stretch. The Nationals realized that their long, painful rebuild was not close to its conclusion, and while the Marlins won more games than expected, their run differential told a different story. Only the Phillies met expectations, even though their season ended with a frustrating October defeat at the hands of the Dodgers.
But this division should rise again in 2026, with the Braves poised to bounce back, the Mets revamped after a busy winter and the Phillies running it back with a contending core. The Nationals are still in rebuilding mode, and the Marlins could surprise but have a ways to go before they can be considered contenders.
ADD PODCAST
Philadelphia Phillies
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March XX): XX-XX, XX% odds to make the playoffs, XX% odds to win the division
What happened last season? The Phillies were one of the most balanced and consistent teams in baseball en route to winning the NL East by 13 games over the second-place Mets and posting their highest win total (96) since 2011. The club finished eighth in baseball in both runs scored and runs allowed. Unfortunately, they faced the mighty Dodgers in the NLDS, which resulted in a four-game exit from the postseason. Within the team effort, there were some special performances, as Kyle Schwarber and Cristopher Sanchez finished second in NL MVP and Cy Young voting, respectively. Veterans Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Ranger Suarez had productive seasons, and Zack Wheeler was delivering a dominant campaign until he was sidelined in August by a blood clot in his right shoulder. The trade-deadline acquisition of closer Jhoan Duran gave the relief corps the anchor it desperately needed.
What happened in the offseason? A franchise that has become known for stability and excellence predictably took care of business over the winter. Schwarber was rewarded for his success with a five-year contract, and while the team wasn’t as quick to attend to longtime catcher J.T. Realmuto, he was eventually recouped with a three-year deal. Adolis Garcia was added to the outfield mix on a one-year, “prove-it” deal, and the former star will attempt to reverse a two-year decline in a new setting. There was also a small but significant shuffle in the bullpen, as southpaw Matt Strahm was traded to the Royals and replaced by free-agent righty Brad Keller. Suarez was the most significant player to leave, signing with the Red Sox.
Best-case scenario for 2026: Philadelphia has been in World Series-or-bust mode for several years, and 2026 is no different. There’s little reason to believe that the aging lineup will be more productive, but the Phillies shouldn’t be much worse, either. Adding Garcia could help, and while Harper is coming off a solid year, he has had better campaigns. Those two players can offset any regression from Schwarber’s career year in 2025, and rookie Justin Crawford could provide a boost with a strong debut season. The rotation should be one of the best in the National League, provided it gets Wheeler back at some point in the first half. In an ideal scenario, Wheeler returns to his dominant form, and longtime elite prospect Andrew Painter finally contributes in the majors. A full season with Duran should have a major impact on the team’s late-inning results.
Worst-case scenario: Although the Phillies will surely be a good team, they face some stiff divisional competition from the Mets and Braves, which could lead to a third-place finish if their win total drops by a few games. As is the case with any roster, potential pitfalls abound. Turner, Harper, Schwarber, Garcia and Realmuto are all at least 32 years old, and the lineup will regress if a few of them experience age-related decline. And while the rotation should be a strength, it’ll quickly become a weakness if Wheeler can’t recover from his shoulder issues and Aaron Nola (6.01 ERA in 2025) doesn’t bounce back from a disappointing season. At the back end, Taijuan Walker and Painter are far from sure things.
Make-or-break player: Zack Wheeler. The Phillies’ ace is one of the biggest make-or-break players in the majors this year. At his best, he’s as good as any starter in baseball, as is evidenced by the 2.91 ERA he has posted in six seasons in Philadelphia. He leads all pitchers in WAR (28.6) over that stretch. With Wheeler, Sanchez and Luzardo atop the rotation, the Phillies can go toe-to-toe with the aces on any team. But there’s also a scenario in which the 35-year-old Wheeler is slow to return to the mound, and when he does, he might no longer possess his dominant skill set.
Season prediction: The Phillies are unlikely to run away with the division again this year. But a tighter race won’t be their doing, as the Mets and Braves are primed to increase their win totals. The Phillies should win 90-95 games and comfortably qualify for the postseason, whether as division champs or a wild card. Once in October, they have as good a chance as any team in baseball to interrupt the Dodgers’ dynasty.
Read more: NL East offseason grades
New York Mets
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March XX): XX-XX, XX% odds to make the playoffs, XX% odds to win the division
What happened last season? Perhaps more than any other franchise, the Mets would like to forget 2025. It’s not that they were the most disappointing team — that title belongs to the Orioles or Braves — but there was no team that raised expectations before falling off a cliff the way the Mets did. New York was 1.5 games ahead of the Phillies on July 28 before enduring a 2-14 stretch that cost them any chance to win the division. An eight-game losing streak Sept. 6-13 then squandered their cushion in the wild-card race, and they ultimately finished 13 games behind Philadelphia and lost a tiebreaker with the Reds for the final postseason berth. The star players couldn’t take too much of the blame, as Juan Soto finished sixth in baseball with a .921 OPS, Pete Alonso ranked second in the majors with 126 RBI, and Francisco Lindor logged a 30-30 season. Unfortunately, the bottom half of the lineup fell short of expectations, and a starting rotation without an ace experienced letdowns from several veterans.
What happened in the offseason? The Mets’ offseason was the opposite of their 2025 action on the field, as the organization started with a few letdowns before finishing strong. December departures from star free agents Alonso and Edwin Diaz made it seem that the organization was taking a step back, despite adding reliever Devin Williams. But those concerns were alleviated during a one-week stretch in mid-January, when the team signed Bo Bichette and traded for Luis Robert Jr. and Freddy Peralta. The additions of Bichette, Robert and another free-agent signee, Jorge Polanco, should more than offset the loss of Alonso. And Peralta gives the rotation the ace it desperately needed. There were some other moves, including an intriguing one-for-one trade of Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien, the signing of reliever Luke Weaver and trading longtime Met Jeff McNeil to the Athletics. But the offseason ended on a sour note, when it was announced that Lindor required surgery to repair a fractured hamate bone.
Best-case scenario for 2026: The pieces are in place for the Mets to win the NL East for the first time since 2015. Although the lineup will miss Alonso’s power, they have a deeper offensive group that will be even stronger if prized rookie Carson Benge soon transitions to the majors. The Mets will also count on Semien and Robert to reverse multiyear struggles. Now that the rotation has an anchor in Peralta, it could be excellent if Nolan McLean can build on an exciting debut season and Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes and Kodei Senga can be more consistent than they were last year. At the very least, the Mets have far more rotation options than most teams, especially if prospect Jonah Tong thrives in spring training.
Worst-case scenario: The Mets are extremely vulnerable in the bullpen. Williams was once a dominant reliever, but he struggled last season in the Bronx to the point that he lost the closer’s role on multiple occasions. His locking down the closer job will be essential to keeping the other relievers in their expected roles. And while the rotation has plenty of options, most either have minimal track records (McLean, Tong) or are coming off down years. The floor is higher for the lineup, but it still has several bats with a wide range of possible outcomes, including Semien, Robert, Benge, Mark Vientos, Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez. With enough letdowns, this team could once again be battling for the final wild-card berth until late September.
Make-or-break player: Devin Williams. There are many Mets who could swing wildly in either direction, but none of them could hamper the team’s results to the same degree as Williams. The 31-year-old entered 2025 as one of baseball’s most dominant relievers. His struggles in the Bronx were partly caused by bad timing (55.2% strand rate) and partly caused by skills regression (34.7% strikeout rate). Williams has always had mediocre control and a less-than-dominant fastball, but prior to 2025, his strikeout abilities (mostly thanks to a dominant “airbender” changeup) were so good that he could consistently pitch his way out of trouble. The Mets desperately need Williams to rediscover that dominant form.
Season prediction: The Mets are too good to miss the postseason for a second straight year. The roster is deep, which should allow the team to comfortably grab an October berth while hanging with the Phillies in the NL East race until the final days of the season. And with the deep pockets of owner Steve Cohen, the front office will surely have the freedom to plug holes or add to the bullpen at the trade deadline.
ADD GRAPHIC
Miami Marlins
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March XX): XX-XX, XX% odds to make the playoffs, XX% odds to win the division
What happened last season? Taken at face value, the Marlins’ 2025 season represented a major improvement. They posted their second-best win total (79) since 2017, which was also a 17-win improvement over the previous season. But there are reasons to believe the team was lucky to win so many games, as their minus-89 run differential ranked 24th in baseball, trailing the 71-win Pirates and barely surpassing the 70-win Twins and 60-win White Sox.
Kyle Stowers was the biggest bright spot, as he went from being a part-time player to posting an impressive .912 OPS and leading the team by a wide margin with a 4.0 WAR. In the second half, Jacob Marsee showed the potential to be a lineup sparkplug, producing an .842 OPS and swiping 14 bases in 55 games. On the pitching side, Edward Cabrera had his best season thus far, logging a 3.53 ERA and showing improved durability while making 26 starts. Long-term injuries to Max Meyer, Braxton Garrett and Ryan Weathers ruined a potentially strong rotation, as did the continued struggles of former ace Sandy Alcantara, who recorded the third-worst ERA (5.36) of any qualified MLB pitcher.
What happened in the offseason? A low-budget team that is often retooling, the Marlins made several winter moves but did not improve their roster. The headline addition was former Rays closer Pete Fairbanks, who signed a one-year deal to give Miami a true ninth-inning reliever for the first time in several seasons. Utilityman Christopher Morel and innings-eater Chris Paddack were also added on one-year pacts. Those moves were accompanied by two trades that weakened the rotation, as Weathers was shipped to the Yankees and Cabrera was dealt to the Cubs. The return packages consisted of seven prospects, with outfielder Owen Caissie being the headliner.
Best-case scenario for 2026: Despite their struggles on the mound last year, the Marlins have the components of a solid rotation. Alcantara posted a 3.33 ERA in the second half, which offers hope that he can get back to being an ace. Eury Perez also has ace upside, and Meyer, Garrett and Jansen Junk could all have solid seasons. And in Thomas White and Robby Snelling, the Marlins have two notable rotation prospects who are ready to debut. With 600 plate appearances from Stowers and Marsee, the lineup could be decent. Caissie could quickly become an imposing power hitter by limiting his strikeouts. If everything comes together, Miami can hang around in the wild-card race until September.
Worst-case scenario: Alcantara’s inconsistency and the lack of a track record from everyone else in the rotation means the Marlins might not improve on their 4.60 team ERA from 2025. Fairbanks is also far from a sure thing, having thrown 50 innings in just one of his seven MLB seasons. The lineup is equally fragile, as Stowers is the only hitter who is virtually guaranteed to be an above-average hitter. Marsee carries some risk, as his track record is limited and he struggles to hit the ball hard. Miami could easily regress to being a 70-win team.
Make-or-break player: Sandy Alcantara. Because he’s capable of throwing so many innings, Alcantara will have a massive impact on this pitching staff in 2026. After all, the right-hander ranked fourth in baseball with 5.9 WAR when he tossed 228⅔ frames en route to winning the 2022 NL Cy Young. Some of Alcantara’s 2025 struggles were skill-related, while some were due to bad luck (61.9% strand rate). His ERA estimators were mostly a full run lower than his actual mark, but they were still higher than his numbers from his prime years. Even so, his second-half success last year offers hope that he can return to being one of the few pitchers capable of logging an ERA under 3.50 over 200 innings.
Season prediction: By trading away Weathers and Cabrera, the front office sealed this team’s fate for another year of rebuilding. The lineup still lacks depth and won’t be ready to turn the corner until it has a collection of three or four hitters with the potential for an OPS in the range of .800. Marlins fans can expect more trades, as the team should again be sellers at the deadline and struggle to win 75 games.
ADD VIDEO
Atlanta Braves
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March XX): XX-XX, XX% odds to make the playoffs, XX% odds to win the division
What happened last season? The Braves were as disappointing as any team in baseball. They ended a seven-year streak of postseason appearances by losing their first seven games of the season and recording losing records in June (11-15) and July (8-17). The offense got off to a slow start, ranking 24th in runs scored at the All-Star break before getting back on track once the team was effectively eliminated from postseason contention. The pitching staff was mediocre all season and finished 22nd in ERA. There were letdowns everywhere, including from key veterans Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II. And there were plenty of injury-impacted campaigns from the likes of Austin Riley and Ronald Acuña Jr. The pitching staff was ravaged by injury, as Bryce Elder (5.30 ERA) was the only hurler who made more than 23 starts. An 80-game PED suspension for offseason signee Jurickson Profar certainly didn’t help.
What happened in the offseason? For a team that failed to meet expectations last year, the Braves were surprisingly methodical during an understated offseason. They kept closer Raisel Iglesias from leaving via free agency by signing him to a one-year contract. He wasn’t the only bullpen signee, as former Padres closer Robert Suarez inked a lucrative, three-year contract to work in a setup role. Veteran outfielder Mike Yastrzemski arrived on a two-year deal. He will be a lineup fixture against right-handers. There were also some small moves to add more versatility to the infield, as Mauricio Dubon arrived via trade and Jorge Mateo was added in free agency. Dubon should open the season as the starting shortstop, as Ha-Seong Kim signed a one-year contract in December but it was announced in January that he’ll be sidelined 4-5 months as a result of hand surgery after he slipped on ice.
Best-case scenario for 2026: The Braves have as much potential as the Phillies and Mets to win the NL East. Their lineup is mostly unchanged from the one that led the majors in scoring in 2023, and most of the key players remain in their prime years. A full season from Acuña would make a huge impact, as would resurgent seasons from Riley, Albies and Harris. Profar played well last year after serving his suspension and should make a bigger impact this season. The rotation still has massive upside, especially if Chris Sale makes 30 starts and Spencer Strider rediscovers the dominant form he showed in 2022 and ‘23. Reynaldo Lopez and Grant Holmes are capable of producing solid results as the fourth and fifth starters.
Worst-case scenario: The downside of the Braves’ roster was on full display as they won 76 games last season. It’s hard to imagine lightning striking twice in terms of the volume of injuries and disappointments Atlanta endured in 2025. However, Riley, Albies and Harris have disappointed for two straight seasons, which means there is no guarantee of immediate turnaround. Sale is 36 and has a lengthy injury history, and Strider might not be able to reclaim the velocity he lost last year. Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep are already on the 60-day IL due to elbow issues. Lopez was limited by injury to one start in 2025, and Holmes’ season ended in July due to a significant elbow injury, which means neither can be counted on. In short, Atlanta’s rotation could be a mess. The Phillies and Mets have excellent rosters, so the Braves could fall far off the pace if they get off to another poor start.
Make-or-break player: Austin Riley. The Braves really need Riley to rediscover his pre-2024 form and rejoin Acuña and Matt Olson as lineup anchors. The 28-year-old continues to rank among the league leaders in average exit velocity and barrel rate, and he still produces plenty of fly balls. His strikeout rate ticked up in 2025, so getting it back in the 25% range should help him have a bounce-back year. The guess here is that Riley delivers 35 homers and drives in 90 runs.
Season prediction: Just like the Mets, the Braves are too good to miss the postseason for a second straight year. Their offense should reclaim top-10 status this year, but instability in the rotation will likely keep the team a notch below the Phillies and Mets. Expect Atlanta to battle for the last wild-card spot until the final days of the season and narrowly grab an October berth.
Washington Nationals
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March XX): XX-XX, XX% odds to make the playoffs, XX% odds to win the division
What happened last season? The Nats got off to a solid start and were just two games under .500 when the calendar flipped to June. Unfortunately, they won fewer than 10 games in each of the next three months and wound up losing more than 90 games for the fifth straight year. The summer swoon can be largely traced to their best players. Budding star James Wood couldn’t sustain a hot start and posted a .623 OPS in the second half, while staff ace MacKenzie Gore arrived at the All-Star break with a 3.02 ERA before logging a 6.75 mark the rest of the way. They certainly weren’t the only disappointments, as Dylan Crews and Keibert Ruiz were supposed to take steps forward but instead endured miserable seasons. While Washington’s offense was mediocre, it was the pitching staff that really limited the club, as only the Rockies produced a worse ERA than the Nats’ 5.35 mark.
What happened in the offseason? The front office faced the hard reality that a long rebuild needed to be extended. Arguably the team’s most reliable reliever, Jose Ferrer, was traded to the Mariners for catching prospect Harry Ford, who will compete with Ruiz for playing time. In a headline-grabbing January deal, Gore was shipped to the Rangers for five prospects. Unfortunately for Nats fans, the headliners in the return package are multiple years away from reaching the majors. The only offseason additions who might make notable contributions in 2026 are Foster Griffin, a 30-year-old starter who has thrown eight major-league innings and spent the previous three seasons in Japan, and Miles Mikolas, who logged a 4.98 across 98 starts from 2023 to ‘25.
Best-case scenario for 2026: There is little chance that Washington stays in the postseason race until the trade deadline, which means success in 2026 will be measured by the improvement of key young players. Wood needs to reverse his second-half decline, and Crews must finally break through as an impact player. Ruiz needs to get his career back on track, and there is plenty of room for 25-year-olds C.J. Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. to show improvement. Daylen Lile was impressive late in the season and will try to extend that success over a full campaign. Things are less exciting on the mound, but Cade Cavalli might be ready to take a step forward, and Josiah Gray is ready to return from Tommy John surgery.
Worst-case scenario: Aside from the Rockies, the Nats might be the worst team in the National League. Without Gore, the pitching staff could be even worse than it was last season. And the key lineup members haven’t shown signs that they’re ready to break out. Wood continues to have elite upside but desperately needs to lower his strikeout rate. Ruiz consistently struggles with his quality of contact. Crews has a .634 OPS in 116 career MLB games. Washington could be effectively removed from the wild-card race by Memorial Day.
Make-or-break player: Dylan Crews. This should be the year that the 2023 No. 2 pick takes a sizable step forward. The 24-year-old has an exciting skill set and could be a 20-30 player this season and a 30-30 star in his prime. His career 22.5% strikeout rate is reasonable, as is his 89.5 mph average exit velocity. Staying healthy and making small strides in those areas could help Crews join Wood and Abrams to form an exciting, young trio atop the lineup. Perhaps Nats fans could live with yet another losing season if they had a few dynamic youngsters to pin their hopes on.
Season prediction: The Nationals are likely to finish 14th in the National League for a second straight year. Simply put, this pitching staff is too weak to keep the club in most games. The hope is that a couple of reliable, effective starters emerge this season. But most eyes will be on the offense, where Wood needs to reverse his recent decline and at least a couple other ascending players need to take sizable steps forward.