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Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
March Madness is so close that I can almost feel its crazy energy seeping into the last few days of February. So far in this bracketology series we’ve talked about No. 1 seeds, bubble teams. mid-majors, host teams and almost everything in between.
But what about those — for lack of a better term — “weird teams” that are more difficult to explain? The ones in the middle? I’m talking about teams that will almost certainly receive at-large bids despite confusing resumes. They haven’t been good enough to host, but haven’t been bad enough to actually end up on the bubble. Here are four weirdos who are worth talking about.
But first, the bracket:
| Last four byes | Last four in | First four out | Next four out |
|---|---|---|---|
Villanova | Princeton | Richmond | Stanford |
Nebraska | Clemson | Virginia Tech | Florida |
Virginia | Syracuse | Kansas | Arizona State |
Mississippi State | Colorado | South Dakota State | Utah |
Tennessee
The Lady Vols are struggling. They’ve lost eight of their last 10 games, including five in a row. Still, Tennessee will be in the tournament. Yes, the selection committee cares about recency, but the rest of Tennssee’s resume is strong enough to overcome the end-of-season drop-off.
First, let’s look at those last eight losses. Only two can be considered bad losses: a 77-62 loss to Mississippi State on Jan. 29 and an 82-74 loss to Texas A&M on Feb 19. The rest have come against Quad 1 opponents. Tennessee also collected three quality wins against Alabama, Kentucky and Georgia. Add in the nation’s hardest strength of schedule and a No. 21 NET ranking, and you have a lock for March Madness.
NC State
The Wolfpack opened their season ranked ninth in the AP poll and looked solid in an 80-77 first-game win over Tennessee. Since then it’s been a relatively disappointing season, with NC State currently sitting at 19-9 and fourth in the ACC. The Wolfpack haven’t lived up to their preseason hype, but they have done enough to earn a bid.
Like Tennessee, none of NC State’s losses have been bad, per se. It has won all 11 of its Quad 3 and 4 games and suffered only one loss in Quad 2. They also have three Quad 1 wins, but the best of those victories was the win over the Lady Vols, and we already know how their season is going. Still, NC State will likely fall in the No. 5- to No. 7-seed range thanks to — you already know what I’m going to say — solid NET (23) and SOS (14) rankings.
Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish did a total offseason roster overhaul and couldn’t put together the season we’ve become accustomed to from them. Hannah Hidalgo and company should earn an at-large bid, but they won’t get close to last season’s No. 3 seed. The Irish look like a No. 8 seed, which puts them dangerously close to the bubble.
The lowlight of the season for Notre Dame is a Quad 3 loss to Georgia Tech in overtime on Jan. 1. However, recency bias is working in its favor with four-straight wins, including victories over fellow tournament teams NC State and Syracuse.
USC
Another No. 8 seed, USC is in a precarious position after losing a Quad 3 game to Penn State on Wednesday. Even so, the Trojans are likely safe from falling out of the at-large pool thanks to four Quad 4 wins, including a particularly strong victory over Iowa on Jan. 29.
They’ve also played close against other top teams, losing by five to Ohio State on Sunday and by six to Michigan on Jan. 25. And of course, those two magic metrics are working in USC’s favor — the Trojans are No. 22 in NET and No. 9 in SOS.
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This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
USC Trojans, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, North Carolina State Wolfpack, UCLA Bruins, Tennessee Lady Volunteers, South Carolina Gamecocks, Villanova Wildcats, Connecticut Huskies, LSU Lady Tigers, Texas Longhorns, Women's College Basketball, Bracket Central
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